Unavoidable escalation in the Ukraine war
The recent intensification of fighting between Russia and Ukraine, long feared in the West, may indicate that the two sides are eyeing the negotiation table.
For the first time since the war began, Ukrainian boots are on Russian soil. Troops crossed the border, invading Kursk Oblast, capturing several villages and advancing up to 30 kilometers. According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Kyiv is pushing “the war out into the aggressor’s territory” and demonstrating its ability to “restore justice and exert pressure on the aggressor.”
He also remarked that “Ukraine is proving that it really knows how to restore justice and guarantees exactly the kind of pressure that is needed.”
Unsurprisingly, Moscow reacted with harsh words: “Russia’s tough response will not take long.” This incursion was a bolt out of the blue for the Kremlin. It has forced Russia to evacuate tens of thousands of residents from the border regions and declare a state of emergency.
Up until now, the West has limited Ukraine’s offensive capacities. This policy has frustrated effective defense.
The Ukrainian military has not commented on its operation’s aims. Many observers assume that it is attempting to draw Russian capacities away from the existing frontlines. However, President Zelenskiy’s remarks imply that it could also be a strategic move to strengthen Ukraine’s position in future negotiations with Russia.
Indeed, there are several indications that negotiations could occur. The incursion follows a certain logic in confrontation, where escalation is used to strengthen one’s position before talks begin. Russia is likely to respond with its own escalation.
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Up until now, the West has been so scared of escalation in the conflict that it has in many ways limited Ukraine’s offensive capacities. This policy has frustrated effective defense, however, the fear of Russia’s nuclear weapons has trumped such considerations. The United States and its European allies mainly emphasized the puny strategy of economic sanctions, expecting to destroy the Russian economy and industry. The strategy – and this was foreseeable – has failed.
Russia will now make its own move. However, a nuclear response, which has petrified the West for so long, is hopefully not the choice.
Unfortunately, at this point, potential solutions to the conflict may result in territorial gains for Russia. In any case, Europe will now need to bolster its defense capabilities to deter potential aggression from any direction.
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