Taiwan’s geopolitical relevance for Japan
Japan looks at the issue of Taiwan’s independence through the lenses of Southeast Asia’s history and its own vital interests, which are threatened by China’s expansionism.
In a nutshell
- As China leans hard on Taiwan, Japan sees a risk to its national security
- It has responded by ramping up its military, especially the naval forces
- Japan has also remarkably intensified its foreign policy activities
Much of the world sees the conflict over Taiwan primarily as a regional dispute between Beijing and Taipei. However, a military clash in the Taiwan Strait would have profound repercussions that extend far beyond East Asia, upending global stability and security.
Should open warfare erupt and Taiwan be fully integrated into the People’s Republic of China, the consequences for Japan would be particularly severe.
Taiwan represents not only a complex historical issue for Japan but also a critical national security concern today. The potential loss of Taiwan’s independence could jeopardize Japan’s geopolitical standing and its role as a significant power in the international arena, with alarming scenarios already emerging.
Taiwan is a favored travel destination for many Japanese people, one of the attractions being that it is much cheaper to play golf on the island than in Japan. Conversely, Taiwan’s citizens are among Japan’s most enthusiastic consumers of luxury goods. Economically, Taiwan is Japan’s fourth-largest trading partner and plays a vital role in Japan’s information technology sector, underscoring the intertwined fates of these two nations.
Facts & figures
The legacy of Japan’s colonial rule
For centuries, Taiwan and the nearby Pescadores Islands were largely isolated, inhabited mainly by outlaws and pirates. Taiwan entered the broader narrative of Chinese history in 1895 when it became a Japanese colony following China’s defeat in the First Sino-Japanese War. Japan governed the island until 1945, when the United States ceded it to Chiang Kai-shek’s Republic of China after Japan’s surrender.
As Mao Zedong’s (1949-1976) forces took control of mainland China, Chiang’s nationalist government retreated to Taiwan. Since the establishment of the People’s Republic of China on October 1, 1949, Beijing has asserted its claim over Taiwan, labeling it a “seditious province” and leaving open the possibility of using military force to bring the island back into the fold.
The Japanese occupation of large parts of mainland China is widely recognized for its brutality, with atrocities comparable to those committed by Nazi Germany. In contrast, Japan’s 50-year colonial rule in Taiwan, while still marked by oppression, was characterized by a more structured governance approach, because Tokyo aimed to transform the island into a “model colony” showcasing its administrative capabilities. As a result, they did not perpetrate atrocities there comparable to the Nanjing Massacre or the concentration camps in Manchuria. They focused on developing Taiwan’s infrastructure and economy and invested in public works and industry. The policy was enforced through strict control and harsh penalties, but it lacked the extreme violence seen in Japan’s actions on the mainland.
Tokyo has come to believe that there is no inherent barrier preventing ethnic Chinese people from establishing a robust democracy.
The Japanese education system and modernization efforts had a lasting impact on Taiwanese society. During Japan’s post-World War II reconstruction boom, the island maintained a positive view of its former colonizer. Japan served as a model for Taiwan’s development into a modern, open society. Many older Taiwanese people (including Lee Teng-hui, who would later become Taiwan’s first democratically elected president from 1988 to 2000) studied at prestigious Japanese universities like Kyoto Imperial University. Mr. Lee admired Japan’s successful modernization efforts.
Japan’s lesson
From Japan’s perspective, the history of Taiwan post-World War II and the developments in China since the late 19th century are crucial for understanding how to engage with the Chinese state. The key lesson from the past decades, Tokyo has come to believe, is that there is no inherent barrier preventing ethnic Chinese people from establishing a robust democracy and facilitating peaceful transitions of power. Taiwan exemplifies this democratic potential, having conducted numerous free and fair elections with peaceful power shifts between the two dominant parties, the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
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Taiwan’s successful political development elevates the conflict to a much higher level, from a mere internal Chinese quarrel to a matter of global significance. The tension across the Taiwan Strait reflects the fundamental conflict between liberal democracy and the rule of law on the one hand and autocracy and totalitarianism on the other hand.
The fear of the domino effect
Japan, as a well-established democracy, views Taiwan’s fate as closely intertwined with its own, particularly given its proximity to three authoritarian neighbors: China, North Korea and Russia. Japan’s historical journey includes two significant socio-economic and political modernizations – the Meiji Restoration in the late 19th century and the post-World War II reconstruction. Unfortunately, Japan has witnessed the failure of both Chinese and Russian elites to seize opportunities to create modern nations that protect citizens’ freedoms and rights. Consequently, both countries remain entrenched in imperialistic autocracies, heightening Japan’s concerns about the potential domino effect of Taiwan’s fate on regional stability.
Taiwan and the Pescadores Islands, an archipelago of around 90 small islets, are geographically close neighbors of Japan. Taiwan lies approximately 110 kilometers west of Yonaguni Island, Japan’s westernmost inhabited territory and part of the Okinawa Prefecture.
Taiwan is also situated approximately 170 kilometers from the uninhabited Senkaku Islands (known in Chinese as the Diaoyu Islands), which are under Japanese control but also claimed by China and Taiwan.
Occasionally, Chinese ships or military aircraft violate the territorial waters and airspace claimed by Japan in this region. In recent times, such provocations have become more frequent. While the Senkaku Islands lack permanent military installations that could significantly impede international shipping lanes, Japan’s claim and China’s provocations serve as testing grounds for how seriously each side takes the sovereignty issues at stake.
Taipei has bolstered the island nation’s military capabilities, which likely contributes to the Chinese leadership’s hesitation to act on its threats of force.
The critical questions for Japan revolve around whether it would engage in full-scale war if China were to seize the Senkaku Islands militarily and whether the United States would consider such an event a reason to go to war under their security alliance. Since the administration of Donald Trump (2017-2021), doubts have emerged about America’s commitment to this defense. Given the multitude of global security challenges facing the U.S., it seems unlikely that it would enter a full-scale conflict with China solely to protect the Senkaku Islands.
Taiwan, however, is of a significantly different scale. The island, with a tight network of several large and smaller naval bases, including Keelung in the north and Kaohsiung in the south, serves as a barrier against Chinese advances in the Taiwan Strait. Over the years, Taipei has bolstered the island nation’s military capabilities, which likely contributes to the Chinese leadership’s hesitation to act on its threats of force. The concern that China’s landing operation in Taiwan could fail may loom large in their calculations. Moreover, while the U.S. may be reluctant to intervene in various global conflicts, it is likely to come out fully committed to supporting Japan and other allied nations in the defense of Taiwan.
Japan, which sources about 95 percent of its crude oil from the Middle East and conducts a significant part of its maritime trade through the South China Sea, views the Taiwan Strait as a lifeline for its advanced economy. Should the Chinese People’s Liberation Army conquer Taiwan, this crucial waterway would effectively become an inland sea under Beijing’s control. From Japan’s perspective, such an act would be nothing less than provocative and life-threatening.
This situation necessitates military planning that considers Japan’s potential involvement in a conflict. Japan could be drawn into war either through Beijing’s deliberate use of the Taiwan issue to settle scores with Tokyo or due merely to the unpredictable nature of warfare in the South China and East China Seas. Tensions can escalate rapidly, leading to conflicts that, as well as being seemingly irrational and detrimental to all parties involved, could also have devastating consequences for the entire Far East.
One of the most feared aspects of warfare is the domino effect, which was a central concern during the Cold War (1947-1991). This threat influenced the power dynamics in Europe and drove both Soviet and Western interventions in what was then known as the Third World, such as the war in Indochina and various conflicts in Africa. In these cases, the primary motive was often to prevent the spread of communist regimes and their control over valuable resources and strategically important assets.
Japan has come to recognize that the security threat posed by an ambitious China is as multifaceted as the one that Europe faces from unending Russian imperialism.
China’s invasion of Taiwan risks triggering a domino effect, potentially escalating tensions around Japan’s Okinawa Prefecture. The Chinese government does not officially claim the Ryukyu Islands (which include Okinawa, the largest among them), a kingdom that lasted for some 400 years. However, Chinese nationalists argue that the islands of the former kingdom – which had paid tribute to the Chinese emperors – are not part of the highly centralized Japanese state. Indeed, many Okinawans assert a distinct identity and culture from mainland Japan, evident in their cuisine and handicrafts.
Furthermore, the memory still lingers of the violent American capture of Okinawa, particularly as the Japanese Imperial Army used civilians as human shields during the fight. Today, significant resentment exists among the local population regarding the American military bases in Okinawa. With the U.S. pursuing a containment strategy against China and the latter increasingly asserting its hegemonic presence at sea, both Taiwan and Okinawa are major strategic positions in the Indo-Pacific region.
Scenarios
Currently, the leading actors in the Far East are assessing their positions for future actions.
Most likely: Rapid enhancement of Japan’s military
This scenario includes increasing military strength alongside the expansion and modernization of Japan’s arms industry. More significantly, there is a notable shift in Japan’s defense doctrine, which now embraces engagements beyond its own territory.
The government of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (2021-present) has decisively moved beyond Japan’s post-World War II history of pacifism and abstention from military affairs. Its security policy now extends well beyond the U.S.-Japan bilateral alliance. Tokyo is actively engaging with multilateral frameworks like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (“The Quad”), which includes Australia, India, Japan and the U.S. Japan is also forging new bilateral security partnerships, such as the agreement with the Philippines.
Japan has come to recognize that the security threat posed by an ambitious China is as multifaceted as the one that Europe faces from unending Russian imperialism. Consequently, Tokyo has concluded that cooperation with countries beyond its traditional sphere of influence is necessary. In this context, it is noteworthy that naval vessels from several European nations have recently shown their flags in East Asian waters – an indication at least that European powers also acknowledge their security interests in the Far East.
Less likely: Japan-China rapprochement
Japan-China accommodation is not implausible. A recent trilateral meeting among the leaders of China, South Korea and Japan highlighted potential avenues for cooperation. Within Japan’s long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), longstanding factions are advocating for improved relations with China.
Critics of “appeasement,” who view China as a threat, emphasize the need for enhanced security infrastructure while simultaneously advocating for increased Sino-Japanese trade and business relations. In this scenario, there is a tendency to exclude Japan from any potential involvement in a Taiwan conflict. As international market conditions become more challenging, it is likely that “China doves” will gain greater influence in Japan’s security debate.
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