The South African coalition government’s daunting agenda
The 2024 elections marked a shift in South African politics, yet the end of the ANC’s decades-long hegemony may prove fleeting.
In a nutshell
- Voters stripped the ANC of its dominance and forced a governing coalition
- Economic instability, unemployment and rising crime fuel calls for change
- The coalition faces hurdles in governance and its success is not a given
Three decades after the dawn of majority rule and democracy in South Africa, voters have chosen a national unity government, denying the African National Congress (ANC) continued hegemony in the May elections. The party won just 40 percent of the vote, down from the 57 percent it achieved in 2019, and failed to secure a majority while opposition parties made strong gains. Africa’s leading economy will have a more varied leadership, but governance challenges remain, and ensuring the country’s future prosperity is a tall order for the fledgling coalition.
Unlike other countries in Southern Africa, where dominant parties resist acknowledging their loss of hegemony, President Cyril Ramaphosa accepted the result of an unprecedented defeat for the ANC, declaring that the formation of a government of national unity was the beginning of a “new era.” While this scenario was anticipated, and the events following the announcement of the electoral results confirmed the resilience of South Africa’s democracy and constitution, the necessity for coalition rule also brings some uncertainty in a nation facing economic crises and severe criminality.
The new coalition government is led by the ANC and includes several smaller parties – most importantly the Democratic Alliance (DA), the main opposition party since the transition to democracy began, which secured 22 percent of the vote. The power-sharing agreement enables Mr. Ramaphosa to remain president in exchange for modest cabinet positions for coalition partners.
South Africa’s redrawn political map
The erosion of support for the ANC reflects two main trends. The first is that many, particularly among the urban “born free” generation, no longer consider the ANC’s historical achievement of liberating the country from apartheid, to warrant the party’s continued, unchecked exercise of power. Second, South Africans are dissatisfied with the poor performance of the successive ANC governments over the past decade, amid multiple economic crises, rising unemployment, power shortages and widespread corruption. This erosion is both a cause and a consequence of the fragmentation of South Africa’s party system, which is divided along ideological, historical, regional and ethnic lines.
The roots of the centrist and liberal Democratic Alliance, now part of the governing coalition, can be traced back to the anti-apartheid Progressive Federal Party, which was the main opposition party before the transition to majority rule in 1994. The DA is defined by its pro-market views and skepticism regarding the economic empowerment policies implemented by the ANC. The party has governed the Western Cape province since 2009, claiming that Cape Town is the “best-run city in South Africa.”
However, to understand the end of ANC hegemony, it is necessary to consider other political entities, such as the recently created uMkhonto weSizwe Party (M.K.). Named after the armed wing of the ANC, the M.K. is an ethno-populist party supported by former President Jacob Zuma, who was defeated by Cyril Ramaphosa within the ANC in 2017 and forced to quit the country’s presidency in 2018 following a massive corruption scandal. This year was the first time that the M.K. contested an election, and the upstart party managed to secure 15 percent of the vote to become the country’s main opposition force after the DA joined the coalition government. The M.K. has its stronghold in the city of Durban and elsewhere in the coastal province of KwaZulu-Natal, renowned for its natural beauty and rich indigenous cultural heritage.
Although with less impressive results, the electorate also cast substantial votes for other opposition parties, including the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), a populist and far-left political formation that was initially launched by former ANC youth leader Julius Malema, who was expelled from the ANC in 2012 for stoking division within the party. This year, the EFF managed to increase its support among urban black youth, with an agenda calling for radical economic transformation, and garnered just below 10 percent of the vote.
The M.K. and EFF, both skeptical about the 1994 constitution and advocating for a Zimbabwean-style land reform process, have conquered some segments of the ANC electorate while weakening the more radical wings within the ANC, thus allowing for the establishment of the ANC coalition with the DA.
Voters are concerned about the grim economic outlook
Economic and security issues are among the main concerns of South African voters. On the economic front, the country seems to be stuck in a vicious cycle. One of the legacies of the apartheid regime was unequal development, which put the black majority at a disadvantage. To confront this legacy, the ANC adopted the Black Economic Empowerment policies and the indigenization of the economy. Such policies, however, have hindered growth, and key socioeconomic indicators are actually worsening, rather than improving.
Public finances also need attention. The tax base has stagnated while the number of social grants and subsidy recipients have substantially increased over the past three decades. Currently, South Africa’s poverty rate is above 60 percent, and 28 million people, more than 40 percent of the population, are dependent on social grants. In the absence of a significant middle class, the country has one of the highest levels of income inequality in the world. Despite the Black Economic Empowerment initiatives aimed at enhancing the economic participation of black people, the overall unemployment rate has also been increasing. The jobless rate this year is estimated to be nearly 33 percent, with youth unemployment (those aged 15-34) even higher at 45 percent.
In the absence of a significant middle class, the country has one of the highest levels of income inequality in the world.
Another factor blocking economic growth is the collapse of basic infrastructure. Broken railways and crumbling sewage systems, as well as chronic water and power shortages adversely impact people’s lives, increase the costs of business and deter investment.
While the current situation exposes the failure of the indigenization policies, there is a lively debate about why they failed. Some blame poor implementation, leading to inefficiency and corruption, in a process that was captured by a black elite with preferential access to lucrative businesses and strategic resources. Others, in turn, claim that the social engineering and racialized perspective that are the basis for indigenization, even if well-implemented, disregard key aspects of a growth-inducing environment, such as free market principles, free initiative, competence and merit-based advancement.
Crucially, addressing crime and insecurity remains necessary for growth in South Africa. According to a 2023 report by the World Bank, crime costs the country’s economy 10 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) annually. Amid the deterioration of living conditions, corruption and inefficiency of public security services, the murder rate (45 per 100,000) has been increasing, and organized crime networks are expanding their activities.
Challenges to maintaining national unity
While the new era announced by President Ramaphosa presents some opportunities for change, it simultaneously poses significant challenges.
One relates to the symbiosis between the state and the ANC. While, as recent events confirmed, the party remains committed to constitutional and democratic principles, its hegemonic position has resulted in the colonization and in some instances capture of state institutions through dense patronage networks. For the coalition government to function, the ANC may have to sacrifice the favored position of several of its cadres.
A second challenge is whether the opposition will be both strong and pragmatic enough to influence decision-making. The governing coalition joins together the ANC, DA and several other parties, and accounts for more than 70 percent of all parliamentary seats. The role of the opposition is played primarily by the M.K. and EFF, two anti-establishment parties that are skeptical of liberal democracy and free markets.
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A third challenge has to do with the perception among large segments of the South African electorate that the DA represents the interests of white, Asian and colored South Africans to the detriment of the black majority. While this is, to a large extent, a caricature, it may well be weaponized by the opposition and by dissatisfied wings of the ANC.
Finally, a fourth challenge has to do with power dynamics. One of the risks of coalition governments, especially when led by a hegemonic party, is the division – rather than the sharing – of power. In the case of the government of national unity, this may be reinforced by deep divergences on important issues, like indigenization, health policies or foreign affairs. In the healthcare sector, for example, the Democratic Alliance firmly opposes a law, approved by President Ramaphosa before the elections, establishing a mandatory National Health Insurance and banning private health insurance for all treatments covered by this scheme.
The negotiations over cabinet posts were tense, and almost led to the collapse of the agreement. Despite pressure from the DA, the ANC secured 20 of the 32 cabinets, retaining the finance and foreign affairs portfolios and other key posts including electricity and energy, mineral and petroleum resources, and trade, industry and competition. The DA secured six cabinet posts including agriculture, public works and infrastructure, and home affairs. The remaining six were split between the smaller parties. Pieter Groenewald, leader of the right-wing party Freedom Front Plus, became minister of Correctional Services, a key post in light of South Africa’s high homicide and robbery rates.
Scenarios
Considering the current context, three main scenarios should be considered.
More likely: Return of ANC hegemony
Under a first, slightly more likely, scenario, the government of national unity will pave the way for a reconsolidation of ANC hegemony. The reason this scenario is slightly more likely is because, in case of failure, the Democratic Alliance may be more exposed to adverse electoral consequences, and in case of success, the ANC may take credit, as ZANU-PF, the former powerbroker in Zimbabwe, did in 2013. Moreover, the DA may be more vulnerable than the most experienced ANC politicians to the risks of participating in a governing coalition in areas with tough negotiations, internal divisions and intense public scrutiny. Under this scenario, after an experiment with a government of national unity, the ANC, with new leadership, could regain its hegemonic position.
The removal of political competitiveness from the young coalition government would negatively impact the already fragile economic outlook. A restoration of ANC hegemony would reduce pressure for structural changes, in the absence of which, in the medium to long term, the South African economy could collapse.
Possible: Convergence to the center and compromise
While slightly less likely, the hypothesis of a convergence of political forces to the center should also be considered. The urge to avoid the risk of economic collapse under a reconstituted ANC, combined with a strong majority in parliament, could pressure the parties within the coalition, especially the ANC and DA, to find common ground on the most pressing issues and deliver results on the economic and public security fronts.
Under this scenario, and considering the DA’s focus on economic progress, the private sector could gain increased prominence in the economy, allowing for competitiveness and efficiency gains while potentially decreasing corruption levels. On the executive front, however, this hypothesis faces headwinds due to the DA not controlling key portfolios, apart from public works and infrastructure.
Also, the country would adopt a less vocal position on divisive international issues like the war in Ukraine or the situation in Gaza (South Africa under the ANC’s sole rule filed charges of “genocide” against Israel at the International Court of Justice). The ANC today defends a strategy of “Global South” solidarity, whereas the DA is more supportive of the international liberal order, and compromise could bear fruit.
Although this scenario would bring stabilization and reassure investors, and could pave the way for much needed reforms, pockets of resistance and instability would remain, namely in Durban and throughout the province of KwaZulu-Natal, where neither the ANC nor DA have much support.
Less likely: The entire country increasingly resembles Johannesburg
Under a third, less likely, scenario, the government of national unity would be paralyzed by the divergences between the DA and ANC, paving the way for a period of instability and further fragmentation of the multiparty system. This could be the result of a combination of factors, including the collapse of the coalition government and internal fighting within the ANC, as different factions (some of them which consider the coalition with the DA as a betrayal) compete for control of the party in a post-Ramaphosa era.
The city of Johannesburg provides a cautionary tale about the economic and social consequences of this scenario. In a context of growing fragmentation, and amid a drift toward unstable coalitions and mayors, the city faces rampant crime levels, successive power and water crises and the quasi-collapse of basic services.
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