Kagame still holds Rwanda’s consensus together
President Paul Kagame’s model of top-down reform and economic transformation appears to have built a durable consensus in Rwanda, even at the cost of centralized control and suppression of dissent.
In a nutshell
- Paul Kagame has stuck to a long-term, stability-based growth strategy
- Rwanda has made progress on digital and rural transformation
- Key challenges include a democratic deficit and conflict with the DRC
President Paul Kagame is expected to be reelected for a fourth seven-year term in July. Even though Kagame is one of many long-serving heads of state in Africa, the extraordinary conditions of his tenure – Rwanda’s genocide and the process of reconciliation and development that followed – make it a special case.
‘Consensus’ democracy
The Rwandan presidential election takes place just a couple of months after the 30th anniversary of the genocide against the Tutsis. In 1994, in a 100-day outburst of brutality, nearly one million people were killed. The tragedy was so vast that it directly involved most Rwandans as victims, perpetrators, accomplices or witnesses. The violence generated a massive outflow of refugees. After the victory of the Tutsi-led Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), two million people, including many who had participated in the Hutu-led killings, fled Rwanda. More than half of them went to the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).
The human carnage in Rwanda was accompanied by the destruction of much of the country’s infrastructure and the collapse of its economy, with gross domestic product (GDP) contracting by more than 50 percent. Any semblance of social trust was erased by the genocide, making restoring unity and reconciliation the RPF’s main imperative after assuming power. Not surprisingly, the ruling party has defended a model of consensual democracy, which is intended to prevent ethnic polarization by focusing on inclusion, rather than competition.
Since the transitional period ended in 2003, the RPF has won successive elections in a series of landslides, exposing the absence of any real political alternative. Opposition parties have been either coopted or neutralized, while critics of the regime have been persecuted, sometimes in violent ways. The officially permitted opposition is represented by the Green Democratic Party, led by Frank Habineza, which attracted less than 0.5 percent of the vote in the 2017 elections.
Even so, it is important to note that this model, which sacrifices political competition for stability and predictability, seems to be accepted by most of the population. In fact, while external observers described the 2015 constitutional referendum, which allowed President Kagame to run for a third term, as controversial and undemocratic, a strong consensus appears to have arisen that Rwanda is best served by making his hold on power permanent.
Transformational force
The genocide in Rwanda was both a dramatic and foundational moment, to the extent that it created a “before” and “after.” The RPF assumed responsibility for building a “new Rwanda.” Paul Kagame was a man with a plan, as reflected in the ambitious Rwanda Vision 2020 program launched in 2000. The long-term development scheme met or exceeded many of its declared benchmarks, including for GDP growth and income per capita, life expectancy, infant mortality, gender equality in decision-making positions and public health.
Besides stabilization, the RPF regime managed to unleash a process of structural economic transformation, with workers moving to higher productivity jobs. Since 2000, the share of services in Rwandan GDP increased from 29 to 48 percent, while that of agriculture declined from 49 to 23 percent. Tourism, which now accounts for 11 percent of economic output, has also become an important driver of growth. The government has invested significantly in the “Visit Rwanda” brand, establishing, for example, a partnership with the UK Premier League’s Arsenal Football Club. This sectoral strategy relies on private sector initiative, using conservation programs to promote sustainability and attract foreign investment. It is largely targeted toward the luxury tourism and the MICE (Meetings, Incentives, Conferences and Exhibitions) segments of the industry.
The RPF economic strategy was guided by two goals: rural transformation and the creation of a knowledge-based economy. Seen as necessary conditions to reduce poverty and high levels of aid dependency, these objectives were to be accomplished in part by strengthening the private sector and attracting private investment. To this end, the government adopted a series of reforms, including land reform, termination of price controls, privatizing state-owned companies, the enactment of a new investment code, establishment of a one-stop shop investment center and tax incentives. With a score of 76.5 out of 100, Rwanda was Africa’s second-highest rated country, after Mauritius, in the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business ranking for 2020.
Government-led growth
The success of Rwanda’s trajectory stems from a combination of factors that cannot be dissociated from Paul Kagame’s leadership. Government efficiency is reflected in the successful design, implementation and monitoring of a series of innovative, home-grown development projects like the Mutuelles de Sante (a subsidiary and community-based health insurance scheme), the Girinka program (which provides poor families in rural areas with a cow) and Ubudehe, which is based on traditional forms of mutual assistance at the local level and seeks to stimulate entrepreneurship. Another important ingredient of Rwanda’s success story is relatively low levels of corruption. Rwanda is among Africa’s least corrupt countries, with the lowest perceptions of corruption in East Africa, according to Transparency International’s 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index.
To spur development and foster a knowledge-based economy, the government has invested in expanding connectivity and digitalization, as reflected in initiatives like the Connect Rwanda smartphone donation program or the use of drones to deliver blood plasma and other medical supplies to local clinics. Innovation has also accelerated growth in the FinTech sector, positioning Rwanda as a regional digital hub. This has encouraged many companies to view the country as a gateway into the African market, allowing for ideas and products to be tested with relatively low risk. An example is the Moving Rwanda pilot project, a partnership between Volkswagen and Siemens to test the feasibility of operating electric vehicles in Africa by introducing car-sharing models and building charging stations and other support infrastructure.
Stability’s price
In Rwanda, the price to pay for political stability and economic transformation has been the elimination of political dissent and the centralization and regulation of many aspects of daily life. While President Kagame’s chosen developmental strategy has strengthened participation, ownership and accountability (which are all important to rebuild social trust), it is also inspired by a logic of social engineering which reinforces state control.
For all its stress on private sector growth, Rwanda remains one of the most aid-dependent countries in the continent, with aid accounting for more than 40 percent of the national budget. And despite its attractive business environment, Rwanda’s landlocked location and tense relations with its neighbors, particularly the DRC, have compromised efforts to attract foreign direct investment.
Regional profile
President Kagame has managed to increase Rwanda’s leverage in regional and international forums, even as it suffers from a deficit of democracy at home. The country holds a key position in the African Union’s process of institutional reform (which is still stuck in the starting gate) and is a major player in the continent’s collective security structure, as seen by its independent dispatch of troops for counter-insurgency operations in Mozambique and the Central African Republic, along with its contribution of nearly 6,000 soldiers and police to UN peacekeeping missions – on par with India and Nepal.
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Rwanda’s eagerness to raise its international profile is also reflected in a willingness to take in refugees and asylum seekers from outside the African continent. Rwanda benefits from being classified as a “safe country,” and refugees there, unlike in other places, are allowed to live outside settlements, work, own property and register a business. Under the controversial deal negotiated with the United Kingdom on asylum and migration, for example, Rwanda will receive 430 million euros over a five-year period to settle people whose asylum claims have been rejected by the UK.
Deep-rooted conflict
At the moment, however, the most pressing challenge to stability in Rwanda and the entire African Great Lakes Region is the ongoing low-intensity conflict with the DRC. The roots of this conflict are deep and complex, and today’s tensions cannot be understood without considering the Rwanda genocide and the massive exodus that followed.
Rwanda has been accused by the DRC, and by other actors like France, of supporting the M23 rebel movement. In a recent interview, DRC President Felix Tshisekedi referred to President Kagame as a “criminal” and accused Rwanda of exploiting blood diamonds in Congolese territory and selling them to multinationals. President Kagame, in turn, has accused the DRC of attacking Tutsi communities living in eastern Congo. Comparing the current situation to what happened between 1990 and 1994, he claimed that the threat of genocide “is an issue for the present day.”
International and regional mediation efforts have consistently failed, and both President Kagame and President Tshisekedi have recently adopted a more aggressive tone.
Scenarios
Paul Kagame can be expected to achieve another landslide victory in the upcoming elections. Since Rwanda does not appear to be ripe for any fundamental political changes while he remains firmly in charge, three main scenarios should be considered.
Most likely: No significant policy shifts in the short term
The first, most likely scenario assumes no major changes in Rwanda are imminent. However, as President Kagame celebrates his 70th birthday in late 2027 and enters the second half of his next presidential term, infighting over his succession could erupt, as is often the case with leadership transitions in personalized, centralized and charismatic regimes. An absence of political competition combined with the social challenges posed by persisting poverty could also contribute to uncertainty and instability.
Less likely scenario: Successful power transition
A second, slightly less probable scenario forecasts a smooth transition into the post-Kagame era. The structural evolution of the Rwandan economy will be decisive in this scenario, which hinges on the country’s capacity to sustain fast growth, encourage more private investment, integrate regional and global value chains and consolidate public finances.
This scenario could be aided by a demographic dividend as the country continues a transition that has seen its fertility rate drop from 6.1 to 3.8 over the past two decades. To the extent that developmental gains tend to mitigate the risk of social and political upheaval, this would increase the likelihood of a soft transition and progressive liberalization in the political sphere.
Least likely: Conflict with the DRC hampers development
Under a third, least likely scenario, the escalating conflict with the DRC could disrupt Rwanda’s growth and developmental trajectory, stifling aid and investment flows while damaging regional trade and tourism. This scenario would expose Rwanda’s chief economic vulnerability – namely, the continued dependence of a large portion of the population on subsistence farming in a context of growing demographic pressure and fragmented landholding.
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