Japan’s mercantilism in the spotlight again
With his focus on the trade dispute with China and several other fronts opened, U.S. President Donald Trump has been lenient in his criticism of Japan’s mercantilism. If he wins a second term in office, however, he may change tack and slap tariffs on, for example, Japanese cars – a ...
Do we need Boris Johnson?
British Conservatives must pick a new prime minister from two candidates: Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt. With the United Kingdom’s political leadership paralyzed and relations with the EU at an impasse, an enfant terrible might be the better choice.
EU-China relations at a crossroads
For decades, relations between the EU and China have been based on growing economic cooperation and trade. But this interdependence has become asymmetric, which China exploits to maximize its own benefits and weaken European unity. While Beijing moves toward a knowledge-based economy, it also sees the future in nationalist, “back-to-the-future” ...
The trade war, Huawei and Chinese strategy
As trade tensions with the U.S. intensify, Chinese President Xi Jinping is reverting to the leadership style of Mao Zedong. Initially concerned to accommodate U.S. demands, Mr. Xi is now more worried about domestic critics and gearing up for a protracted struggle. Many see the U.S. as having the upper ...
Between two trade agreements, Asia-Pacific seeks balance
The Asia-Pacific region is seeking a balance of economic and geopolitical benefits with two overlapping trade agreements. Across both sides of the Pacific, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership replaces the defunct TPP agreement after the withdrawal of the United States. Meanwhile, in Asia, the ten ASEAN member ...
Theresa May and the continental side of Brexit
British Prime Minister Theresa May is taking the blame for a debacle that is not of her making. But even now, in the shadow of a hard Brexit, the damage can be contained if cooler heads prevail on the other side of the Channel.
Reforming the African Union
Bucking the world trend, Africa in 2018 was marked by important advances toward free movement, free trade and closer cooperation between states. The main advances were on the economic front, with the agreement to create a Continental Free Trade Area (CFTA). While trade liberalization has the potential to be transformative ...
Brexit and trade
Brexit negotiations between the European Union and the United Kingdom were supposed to be concluded at the EU summit on October 17. But the deadline passed with no breakthrough, and no plans for a new meeting. With the clock to a “hard Brexit” ticking down, this could be the salutary ...
GIS Dossier: The South China Sea
The South China Sea is critical for global trade and security. Beijing’s moves to extend its influence throughout the sea have heightened tensions, risking conflict with neighbors and the United States. China’s global position, economic power and energy riches are all at stake. This survey presents GIS experts’ analyses and ...
Vietnam’s careful strategy
Vietnam is a textbook example of how a middle-sized power can learn to survive on one of the world's most dangerous geopolitical fault lines.
Is Brexit inevitable?
Signs are accumulating that the preliminary divorce agreement between the United Kingdom and the European Union is starting to unravel, and that a year from now, on March 29/30, 2019, we could witness a “hard Brexit” with no transition arrangements and chaos in areas hitherto regulated by the EU. The ...
2018 Global Outlook: The Euro-Atlantic relationship
The transatlantic relationship can be described as a family matter – with the United States as the mostly benevolent patriarch and Europe as the dependent relatives. Relations had been cooling for at least a decade, but this process is being expedited by the presidency of Donald Trump. Both sides seem ...
GIS Dossier: Global trade and protectionism
According to the economic law of comparative advantage, the whole world has benefited from the enormous expansion of international trade since 1980. But over the past decade, few countries have acted like they believe it. GIS experts look at the roots and likely future course of protectionism’s global resurgence.
Opinion: Why Germany ‘Kant’ be the UK’s perfect Brexit ally
The United Kingdom’s chances for an amicable divorce from the European Union depend above all on reaching an understanding with Germany. But in the Brexit negotiations, German interests will clash with German scruples. The latter may very well prevail.
Are we heading toward trade wars?
Sluggish international trade in recent years has given reasons to worry about globalization. The value of trade involving the G20 group of countries leveled off in 2010 and has been in decline since mid-2014. Many blame Donald Trump and the new vogue for protectionism, but that is an oversimplification.
U.S. trade options in Asia
President Donald Trump’s pledge to crack down on countries that have large trade surpluses with the U.S. has created a lot deal of uncertainty in Asia. Will the new administration enforce current laws and seek bilateral deals, or will it take a more punitive, protectionist stance? Washington’s choice – and ...
Opinion: Trumponomics is worth a second look
President Donald Trump’s economic program is perceived by many as a recipe for disaster. But its most questionable, protectionist elements – such as the border adjustment tax – are unlikely to be implemented or could bring completely unexpected benefits. And the new administration’s plans for infrastructure and deregulation should bring ...
Global Outlook 2017: The Trump transition
President Donald Trump is the product of powerful undercurrents that laid bare the hollowness of politics as usual. His message has few historical precedents among U.S. presidents. Americans have no shared sense of what the new era will bring, just a feeling that there is no going back.