• Iraq will need a political process including Sunnis to cope with a “son of Daesh”
  • Al-Qaeda is developing a sophisticated franchise to fill the jihadi vacuum
  • Iran’s push into the Levant, and Turkey’s battle with the Kurds, will constrain Western responses

As the battle for Mosul concludes, the battle for Raqqa is entering its initial phase. From a military perspective, the fall of these twin bastions of Daesh (otherwise known as Islamic State, or IS) was never in doubt. The only question was the cost, in human lives and material destruction, and the strategic consequences.

In Mosul, the cost is clear. Damage to the city – retaken in savage, door-to-door fighting by a coalition of Iraqi Army and the Interior Ministry troops, Iran-backed Shia militias, Kurdish Peshmerga and Western special forces – is massive. The death toll has not been established but is certain to be very high. Adding to the carnage is the plight of 900,000 displaced civilians, inadequately fed and sheltered in various improvised camps around Mosul.

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 Bernard Siman
The strategic advantage that Iran is acquiring by pushing into western Iraq outweighs any benefits that the U.S. and its allies have gained from their military victories
read more about it in the report
What's inside
  • Iraq will need a political process including Sunnis to cope with a “son of Daesh”
  • Al-Qaeda is developing a sophisticated franchise to fill the jihadi vacuum
  • Iran’s push into the Levant, and Turkey’s battle with the Kurds, will constrain Western responses
Who will benefit?
  • Report is targeted to the decision makers in cross country manufacturing – suppliers, manufacturers, logistics.
  • Also considered useful for the administrative university facilities, to better understand the possibe effects of current decisions.
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