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A map showing geographical locations of non-recognized states

Nonrecognition and trouble in international relations

Detaching and protecting a part of the territory of a weaker state has become a surrogate for traditional armed conflict, played with open cards. As amply demonstrated in the cases of Ukraine, Cyprus, Serbia, Georgia or Moldova, pseudo-state entities emerging in such detachments have considerable staying power, even though they are expensive to maintain by the sponsoring states. Their existence undermines regional security and they complicate the conduct of international relations.

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Regime change in Venezuela: the army will decide when

With the plight of Venezuelans getting worse by the day, it seems strange that the public outcry has not managed to oust President Nicolas Maduro. However, as far back as 2016, GIS guest expert Dr. Anthony Maingot pointed out that this was to be expected. President Maduro’s ability to remain in power “shows that words like ‘crisis’ and ‘intolerable’ are relative,” he wrote. The real arbiter of power in Venezuela is the military, which remains in President Maduro’s corner because the profits from drug trafficking keep lining the generals’ pockets. As long as this remained the case, the army would be willing to keep Mr. Maduro in power. If supplies of cocaine from Colombia were to fall, then competition could splinter the army and, “in return for legal immunity and control of the narcotics trade, the military will support new elections.”

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Geopolitics are back on the agenda

Due to the fast changing international order geopolitics are back on the agenda. I believe that GIS makes a great contribution with analyses and insights that should help businesses and governments developing their responses.

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